This month, Syria witnessed a dramatic transformation as the 53-year-long authoritarian grip of the Assad family came to an abrupt halt.
Rebel forces executed a rapid advance on Damascus, catching many off guard and resulting in the flight of Bashar al-Assad to Russia, where he has since been granted asylum by Vladimir Putin.
This pivotal change raises hopes for an end to a civil war that has endured for over a decade, claiming countless lives and forcing many others to flee.
However, the path to lasting peace will be anything but straightforward.
It will require a complex transition of both the government and security forces amid a landscape dominated by numerous influential factions.
As these developments unfold, the implications for U.S. military operations in the region remain ambiguous.
Current U.S. Military Operations
Currently, U.S. military personnel are primarily deployed in the Middle East to combat the resurgence of ISIS.
These forces, mainly stationed in Syria and Iraq, work alongside local partners.
Moreover, American special operations units have been active in conducting strikes against prominent ISIS and al-Qaida figures.
With Syria’s situation evolving, these targeted operations may intensify as the U.S. aims to prevent ISIS from leveraging the country’s instability.
The core of U.S. national security interests lies in thwarting the rise of a non-governed state that could foster transnational terrorism.
Despite their ongoing mission, U.S. troops are frequently subjected to attacks across the region, including Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and the Red Sea.
Over the past year, hundreds of assaults—mainly attributed to Iranian-backed groups—have targeted American forces, often as retaliation for U.S. support of Israel amid escalating tensions with Hamas in Gaza.
Challenges Ahead for the U.S. and Its Allies
With the fighting against Assad drawing to a close, several pressing challenges emerge for the U.S. and its allies.
There is a notable bipartisan agreement among U.S. leadership—reflected in both President Joe Biden’s and President-elect Donald Trump’s administrations—against direct military intervention.
To date, American responses have primarily involved counterterrorism efforts focused on ISIS, relying mostly on airstrikes.
For example, on December 8, U.S. forces targeted 75 suspected ISIS positions in Syria.
Additionally, Israeli airstrikes have targeted vacant Syrian military installations to prevent militant groups from acquiring advanced weaponry.
A significant concern for U.S. officials is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has been classified as a foreign terrorist organization since 2018.
Originally formed as an al-Qaida affiliate in Syria, HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has claimed to distance the group from al-Qaida.
Nonetheless, the U.S. remains vigilant, with the Justice Department still pursuing a $10 million bounty for his capture due to his alleged terrorist activities.
The Future of Governance in Syria
The future trajectory of HTS and other rebel groups is uncertain.
Looking to history, the aftermath of NATO’s involvement in Libya serves as a cautionary tale, demonstrating the potential for chaos in Syria.
The diverse demographics of Syria further complicate governance; the Alawite minority, which supports Assad, represents a mere 12% of the population, while the rest includes Kurds, Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Druze.
These communities are currently collaborating to shape a new governance framework, but questions about their ability to coexist peacefully loom large, especially with so many armed factions vying for power.
In contrast to Iraq, where a democratic shift could yield a Shia-led government, Syria’s situation is unlikely to mirror that outcome due to its distinct demographic structure.
This scenario may not only alter Iran’s sway over Syria’s foreign and security strategies but could also disrupt Hezbollah’s logistical routes for rearmament.
Various rebel factions are poised to resist Iranian efforts to bolster Hezbollah, which may enhance security for Israel.
However, the longer-term consequences remain unpredictable, prompting Israel to actively target arms depots and other essential facilities.
Ultimately, the principal worry for the U.S. and the global community centers on the risk of a collapsed transitional authority, which could ignite conflicts driven by ethnic and religious divisions.
A fragmented Syria might transform into a breeding ground for transnational terrorism, potentially necessitating further military involvement.
To guard against the establishment of a failed state, U.S. and allied strategies must focus on promoting unity among rebel factions, restricting terrorists’ access to strategic resources, protecting ethnic and religious minorities, and facilitating the creation of democratic institutions and free electoral systems in Syria.
Source: Taskandpurpose